The second attack in four days on Kurdish political control occurred in the town of Makhmoor near Mosul at the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) offices, killing at least 32 and wounding more than 115. The city of Makhmoor is not under formal Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) control, but the area is almost entirely composed of racial Kurds. According to CNN, political meetings were taking place at the KDP offices when a suicide truck bomber struck. Although firmly in the red zone of active conflict, Makhmoor and other ethnically Kurdish areas have mostly been spared this kind of violence. It appears that Al Qaeda cannot accept any peace in Iraq.

This attack is significant in that it indicates a pattern of deliberate targeting of Kurdish government and political control. In my last visit to Iraqi Kurdistan, people went out of their way to tell me about corruption in the political process there. Although the KRG spokesmen are adamant that the attacks are driven by Al Qaeda, the possibility that dissatisfied Kurds are being exploited to aid attacks is very real. Government officials are seen as being corrupt from the top down in Kurdistan and by Kurds abroad. A higher casualty count could have been achieved at softer targets like the local markets. These two attacks on semi-hardened government facilities in four days strongly suggests that whoever is behind these attacks made a deal with Kurds infuriated by government failures and corruption.

According to the BBC, the mayor, prominent Kurdish writer Abd al-Rahman Delaf, was among the wounded. The targeting of the meeting of local politicians and a noted writer shows that government aid distributed by the Kurdish leaders is not going far enough. In many cases this is a matter of people's expectations exceeding the capacity of any government to meet. Although some people in the Kurdish Autonomous Region are doing very well, lack of transparency causes suspicion that is rapidly becoming anger, especially among the uneducated. Without a clear indication of how honest people can do well and government indifference to local producers of goods, dissatisfaction is growing in Iraqi Kurdistan. Especially galling to locals is the widespread importation of goods that can be produced in Iraqi Kurdistan including wheat, water, and produce. Although many are benefiting from the inexpensive free market, the society is moving towards being exclusively consumers. Since the conditions of Iraq's oil revenue distribution are still uncertain, many are worried that the Kurdish Region will find itself unable to produce for itself and without other revenue.

As more details of this attack become available I will make updates.

UPDATES: According to sources in Suliamaniya, the terrorists used a truck with sheep in the back as their cover. Checkpoints passed them because this method had not been used before.

A convoy of PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) leaders was struck by an out of control truck on their way to see the attack site. Three PUK leaders were killed and fifteen wounded. Among the wounded was Saadi Ahmed Pira, a legendary PUK politician and Peshmerga. Kak Saadi treated me as a brother in his home and served me dinner from his own hand. I wish him a speedy recovery.

Posted by Patrick S Lasswell at 01:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (11)

A suicide truck bomb ripped through the Interior Ministry in the relatively peaceful Kurdish city of Irbil on Wednesday, killing 14 people and wounding dozens, officials said.

All of this is based on early reports and some details may be in error on the reports.

1. This was an attack on the Interior Ministry, not a random terror strike. This was intended to do damage to the KRG, not just Kurds in general. If they had wanted to create a body count, they could have driven a kilometer and demolished the Souk. If they had wanted to hurt investment, they would have blown up one of the new malls within a kilometer of Interior Ministry.

2. The Interior Ministry building was placed for prestige, not security. A better location for the government buildings would be someplace out by the Khanzad Pass. There was not enough distance from the very busy road to the center of internal control in the Kurdish Regional Government. This can now be fixed. These buildings can now be moved somewhere out away from where heavy trucks routinely travel.

3. There is no reason to believe this was an inside job. If it had been an inside job, the bomb would have only cratered the building, not the road outside. This was a suicide truck bombing. It is entirely possible that the driver was unaware of the timing of the bomb and may have tried to leave it while someone else was triggering the bomb. It is not hard to rent or steal a truck in Iraqi Kurdistan.

4. There is no good reason to believe that this was done by Arabs.
4a. Ansar al Islam, now Al Qaeda Kurdistan, is perfectly capable of doing this. It actually makes more sense if Kurdish AQK members did this with Iranian assistance, because of the character of the attack.
4b. This was an attack on the KRG, and the primary opponents of the KRG are Turkey and Iran.
4c. Intolerant Gulf Arabs would not fund this sort of thing while there are still Shia and Americans to be killed. The Baath remnants are far too busy creating hell in the South and attempting to steal oil contracts to make this a priority.
4d. Iranians are routinely funding this sort of thing, and this could be direct payback for the five Iranian operatives that were taken with KRG consent in December.
4e. If Turkey is found to be behind this, there will be hell to pay. It is very unlikely that the PKK lost their minds and did this.
4f. Turkey is not regularly getting caught engaging in terror actions in Iraq, and Iran is. It would be much easier for Iran to finance this and use AQK Kurds than for anyone else.

I will try to stay on top of this story and update my analysis here and on my blog. Please feel free to critique my analysis and send me updates directly.